Syria’s crisis, Kurds’ opportunity

By Harem Karem:

Checkpoint in west Kurdistan

Who would have thought the last tumultuous year would be followed by a tectonic shift in the Middle East that leads to eruptions of diamond opportunity for the long oppressed Kurds to reshape their geopolitics? Well, it’s happening now.

The 16-month-old revolt we have witnessed in Syria – starting from a peaceful demonstration and leading on to today’s embattled centres of Aleppo and Damascus – not only defines the staggering determination of the Syrian people to free themselves from the status of sedation and docility under the treacherous regime, but also the stunning maturity of the Party Krekaren Kurdistan’s (PKK) politics and the immature politics of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP).

To adapt a story I once read: ‘Turkey sent their handyman to the hardware store to buy tools without indicating to him whether to make a mouse-trap or build an ark. By the time he realised, the PKK has already built a jaw-dropping ark and put Salih Muslim, the leader of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) in charge. The handyman had no choice but settle for a free ride’.

The truth of the matter is that it is impossible for the Syrian army of around 250,000 men to maintain control over all of the country, regardless of how sophisticated their defence system might be. This is particularly so in an environment where outside powers are keen to exert their power in the country and the regime’s key ally (Iran) has already been hedging its bets. Holding secret meetings with the opposition, Iran may even have offered them money and weapons in an attempt to further infiltrate the Sunni region, as it did in Iraq.

Hence if Assad refuses to quit, he will inevitably have to retreat from some areas. Therefore, the exit strategy from the Kurdish-populated areas could be most effective. Letting the Kurds take over and run their own affairs is designed to cause maximum damage to Turkey on one side and, on the other, it will allow Assad to keep his options open – one of the undesirable characteristics of falling dictators.

Despite the deteriorating situation, Assad might consequently recognise the Kurdistan region of Syria and/or even propose a federal state where Alawites (Shiite) and Sunnis can run their own affairs too. Russians will no doubt support this move so long as Assad remains in safe possession of its Russian defence system, and Iran embraces the survival of its most important client with both hands.

Although there is a risk of Turkish intervention, declaring the Kurdistan region of Syria might be a wise move, so long as lessons from fellow southern Kurds are learned and the boundaries for opportunists – whose ultimate goal is to jump on the bandwagon – are properly marked.

As for the Kurds, it is not a matter of how fast the Assad regime is falling but of how best to satisfy their long thirst for self-determination.