Turkish foreign policy towards Syria, post-Arab Spring

By Zeravan Barwary:

In 1923 the Ottoman Empire collapsed; this created a suitable opportunity for the establishment of the new Arab nation states. Syria was part of the Ottoman Empire until the end of World War I. The modern Turkish state neglected the Arab states and showed no interest towards Syria on its border, because Ankara accounted those states as enemies after they had participated in the war against the Ottoman Empire. The relationship remained aggressive and violent between Syria and Turkey, particularly during the Cold War 1945-1991, because they were on opposite sides; Turkey was an active member of NATO and had collective security arrangements with the Western countries. This essay will examine the changes caused by the Arab Spring on Turkish-Syrian relations.

In 2002, there was a major change in Turkish politics as an aftermath of the parliamentary election, which changed the political map and the key actors in the Turkish political process for the first time after more than seven decades of the nationalist party’s control of political life in Turkey. This dramatic change had a very crucial impact on the domestic and foreign policy of Ankara. The new Turkish ruling party (AKP) with its Islamist background has adopted a new political model for the government program. In its foreign policy it shifted the policy from isolationism towards the Middle East and Muslim world to an active involvement in that region. It came with a different understanding towards Turkey’s neighbors. The most important element was the theory of ‘Zero Problems’ with neighbors that was presented by Davutoglu, the Turkish minister of foreign affairs. This new foreign policy presented an Open Policy towards Syria and other surrounding countries; this model has produced a suitable environment for more cooperation and understanding between Syria and Turkey after the long history of unfriendly relationship. In 2003, relations between both countries dramatically changed to reach a high level of mutual interests; this policy changed the relationship from military confrontation, when the Cold War geopolitics controlled the decision-makers minds in both countries, into a high level of economic and diplomatic exchange. The transformation in Turkish policy towards Syria between 2002 and 2011 led to what is considered to have been the best era in the Turkey- Syria relations.

The relations between Syria and Turkey were influenced by the Arab uprising after a decade of cooperation and economic exchange; the new political developments in the Middle East changed the policy and strategy of many regional actors. Turkey as the main regional power was surprised by the unexpected political situation which occurred in the Middle East which destroyed stability and security through the peoples’ uprisings against totalitarian regimes in Arab countries. Ankara was not prepared for such conditions; the peoples’ revolt in several Arab states shocked the policy makers in Ankara because they were involved in deep economic relations with most Arabic totalitarian regimes as s result of Turkey’s pro-active policy towards the Muslim world. Turkey official response to the Arab uprisings aws explained in 2012 by Davutoglu, the minister of foreign affairs: the Turkish government had conducted a special meeting to create a new strategic plan to respond to the revolts, and was in favor of the people, because it was time for change. Syria was the most influential state on Turkish national security, when the peoples’ uprising began there.  Turkey tried to fulfil its role as a close friend of Syria, Ankara was involved in very intensive talks and arrangements between the  Bashar al-Asaad regime and the opposition to find a common understanding for a peace agreement and resolution. However, the Syrian Government resisted any implementation of  reforms, and it refused to make an agreement with the opposition. This pushed Turkey away from the Syrian regime, and Turkey announced its support for the opposition movement of Syria against Assad when his military used violence against civilians in many cities which had risen up and called for freedom. When Bashar al-Asaad’s regime attacked two Turkish military planes, Ankara considered Damascus as a real threat and enemy of Turkey.

Turkey has deep concerns about the political and security situation in Syria, and it has made it clear that what is happening in Syria affects the Turkish national interest and security. The Turkish government considers the war in Syria as a real and serious threat for Ankara. The Syrian war is getting high attention from Ankara, the whole situation is now under the direct observation of military intelligence and Turkish Security Council. Its fears derive from the sectarian conflict, Kurdish repercussions, the uncertain future for a conflict which might spill over into Turkish territories. Ankara has given its military multiple options to deal with any urgent and unexpected events on the border with Syria, and there have been limited clashes already between the Turkish military and some groups on the border. The Syrian future is frightening Ankara and it has very serious concern about any scenario that could happen there.

In conclusion, it can be said that the relationship between Turkey and Syria is being affected by international and domestic factors, there is uncertain figures about the future of the relationship between both countries since the revolution still ongoing in Syria, and Turkey is not ready to deal with Bashar al–Asaad Regime, not now, and not in the near future.

Zeravan Barwary is a lecturer at the University of Duhok