Game or golden opportunity?

Evin Cheikosman

By Evin Cheikosman:

As I write this article, the citizens of Iraq are going through the worst build-up of an ethno-sectarian war since the 2003 U.S. invasion. Right now Iraq’s citizens are witnesses to looting, bombing, fighting, killing, they are witness to new faces, languages, laws, and rules. As of today, Iraq will never be the same. It will either be divided into three factions, turn into an Islamic state, produce an independent state of Kurdistan, or continue to disintegrate into a lawless land. What is to come of this once great country?

Earlier this week the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) stormed one of Iraq’s most important cities, Mosul. The ISIS set out with a mission, the goal of which is to turn Iraq into an Islamic state and erase the line dividing Iraq and Syria. Their vision is to remain in control of all of Iraq and punish Maliki for oppressing Sunnis. Thus far the ISIS has issued an 11-point charter spelling out the creation of an Islamic state along with new laws, punishments and incentives.

Alcohol, cigarettes and drugs are outlawed, citizens will henceforth be required to pray five times a day, thieves will have their hands amputated and women must stay indoors except in cases of emergency, the charter said. The charter announces: “To those of you who ask, who are you? The answer: We are the soldiers of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria . . . who took it upon ourselves to bring back the glory of the Islamic Caliphate and turn back injustice and indignity”.

So in a word, these guys are insane. However, they are not stupid and in fact their strategic gains thus far have been quite impressive. They are now in control of Mosul, Fallujah, Hawija, Tikrit, and pockets of the Anbar province west of Baghdad. The ISIS managed successfully to scare away about 500,000 inhabitants of a 1.5 million populated Mosul, most of whom fled to nearby Kurdistan. Ironic is it not? In addition, ISIS got rid of more than 90,000 Iraqi soldiers, all of whom chose to desert the city rather than confront the militants.

But how did these 90,000 tough Iraqi soldiers manage to leave Mosul before all hell broke loose? One word: Peshmerga.

The Peshmerga (those who stand in front of death) are armed Kurdish fighters- both male and female- whose roots go back all the way to the late 19th century. They have been at the forefront of Kurdish security and responsible for protecting Kurdish territory from outsiders. The Peshmerga fought with American troops in the 2003 invasion of Iraq and after the fall of Saddam Hussein, the Kurdish military rose from the established Peshmerga. The exact numbers of the Peshmerge are not officially known. In 2005, their strength was estimated at 180,000, and a recent report by CBS News in the United States said they number some 375,000. Kurdish sources say 200,000 men and women are enrolled in the force.

It is thanks to the Peshmerga that ISIS has not invaded Kurdistan, or gained control of all of Mosul. It is thanks to the Peshmerga that the Iraqi soldiers were able to leave Mosul in one piece. No one came to the Iraqi army’s aid when they called for backup, it was the Kurds they called upon as a last resort and they came through. One member of the Peshmerga said, “Had we not filled the vacuum left by the Iraqi army’s departure, everybody would have flooded into the Kurdistan region. We had half a million people banging on our doors.”

However, lest we forget that after the fall of Saddam Hussein, the United States invested more than $25 billion in training and a new military for Iraq? According to various sources, the Iraqi army is equipped with almost 400 tanks including US M1A1s and Russian T- series tanks including the T-72. It also has more than 2,500 armoured fighting vehicles and 278 aircraft, including drones, transport aircraft, amphibious aircraft and 129 helicopters. With that said, ISIS should have been no match for the Iraqi army. What gives?

Well some argue that the Iraqi soldiers were ordered by Maliki to abandon their positions. They were strictly ordered to leave the city of Mosul basically forcing the Peshmerge to come in and fight the ISIS for Baghdad. This way, the Peshmerge will grow weaker with every battle against ISIS and thus become too weak to fight the Iraqi army down the road. Maliki is simply killing two birds with one stone.

The counter argument to this is that the Iraqi army deserted their posts because they actually received no backup from Baghdad nor did they receive any orders from Maliki as to what to do. Iraqi soldiers feel they have no leader, no support, and Maliki is pretty much passive when it comes to responding to emergencies. The Iraqi soldiers called upon the Peshmerga to come in and help them, and that they did. This was not the first time that the Peshmerga came to the Iraqi army’s aid, and from the looks of how Maliki is responding to the crisis, the Peshmerga will most likely not be recognized for their efforts unfortunately.

Whatever Maliki’s intentions are, what Iraqi citizens are going through is horrific and unfair. The result of this chaos will be little to no support for Maliki given his lack of solace and initiative in trying to tackle this dilemma,  and Kurds’ demands will be met to some extent although not fully. Kurds took a huge leap of responsibility in fighting these Islamists, a noble thing Iraqi citizens will not forget… at least should not forget!

One thing is for sure, Iraqi citizens will not forget that Kurds have taken over Kirkuk. Kirkuk is now taken over too? What is going on here you say?! Strategy, pure strategy. The Kurds have a long history with Kirkuk, and, as I had already discussed in my past article, “Mine, Yours, Theirs, or Ours,” the Kurds have been fighting over control of this oil rich city for a long time, and now without a smidgen of opposition, Iraqi soldiers in Kirkuk surrendered to Kurdish demands to leave the city.

Given the fact that the Pershmerga have gone above and beyond in putting their own lives on the line to protect Kurds as well as Iraqis, their plan is to get Baghdad to meet their demands for further protection and cooperation. Their list of demands is as follows:

  • the right to independently export Kurdish oil and gas
  • that Baghdad pay the full 17 percent of the national budget that the KRG is constitutionally entitled to
  • a resolution to Kirkuk and other “disputed territories”; salary payments and running costs for the Peshmerga
  • dues owed to foreign oil companies working in Kurdistan.

The question now facing the Kurds is whether they can maintain the dividing line against the ISIS. The group has begun attacking some of the peshmerga’s forward positions and nearly killed the leader of the force, Sheik Jaafar Mustafa, with an IED targeting his convoy near Kirkuk, according to a peshmerga soldier stationed there.

So far, the peshmerga have been able to repel ISIS attacks, and the Kurdistan region seems to have the military capability and the backing of a powerful neighbor (Turkey), to succeed without the federal government.

However, the question is, is this a fight that the Kurds should put all their man power to win? Is this a mere game that Maliki is playing to exhaust the Peshmerga’s resources? Will Kurds announce independence when they realize that Baghdad will not reward them for practically rescuing the country from the ISIS?

Well, here is one Kurds opinion: “[w]e have lost hope in the sanity of the people governing Iraq. We don’t want to be part of the failure of something for which we’re not responsible. Nobody gave more than us in the effort to keep Iraq together, but now we’re giving up, there’s no hope.”

I think that the Kurds should focus on Kurds. In the end it is themselves they have to depend on. Baghdad will not give in to Kurdish demands just because the Peshmerga stepped up to the plate when Iraqi soldiers didn’t. In addition, there still exists the issue of oil. Maliki is doing everything possible to ruin Kurds’ ability to independently export their oil to the international market. If you really think about it, Maliki just may be trying to weaken the Peshmerga and the Kurds enough to regain total control of Iraq. So is this all really just a sick game?

Evin Cheikosman is a Kurd living in Los Angeles, CA, A recent graduate in International Politics from the University of California, Santa Barbara, she has studied abroad in Berlin, Germany and will soon be traveling to Zhuhai, China on a teaching assignment. Thereafter she will be pursuing a masters degree in foreign affairs. During her free time, Evin posts facts and opinions concerning Kurdish politics on her blog: Minority Politico

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