By Arian Mufid:
The situation in the South of Kurdistan (Northern Iraq) has reached a point where predicting Turkey’s next move is increasing difficult – if not impossible. It also raises a glaring question: why is there no intervention?
Recent events have exacerbated the crisis: Turkey’s military actions, including an errant attack on Southern Kurdistan under the pretext of targeting PKK fighters, have resulted in the occupation of villages near Duhok. Nearly 400 villages have been abandoned as a result.
The Turkish military and their MIT (intelligence agency) are bringing pro-Turkey Syrian mercenaries to the area of Kurdistan to fight the PKK . In late August, a Turkish Drone killed two journalists in the area of Sulaymaniyah because the two who were supporting the Kurdish cause.
Additionally last week, the Turkish military occupation tried to attack Kirkuk with drones. The attack failed as it was thwarted by the Iraqi army, and the drones were shot down. The incident received extensive media coverage in both Iraq and Kurdistan. Turkish MIT has also deployed assassination squads throughout the region. The recent Turkish-Iraqi security agreement has not improved the situation, failing to restore law and order.
The question that remains, then, is not only what comes next but, more crucially, what can be done—and why the world, in particular the US, continues to stand idle in the face of these escalating tensions.
It is difficult to envision peace talks with the Turkish authorities yielding any meaningful progress in the region. Even when the PKK expressed a desire to cease armed struggle, Turkish officials and the military junta interpreted this as a sign of weakness. The continued military presence in Kurdistan has only deepened hostilities between the Turkish government and the Kurdish people. The murder of a Kurdish businessman from Duhok in Istanbul just yesterday is a stark reminder of the escalating tensions between the two nations.
At best, an immediate ceasefire might be reached between the two sides of the conflict, but it remains uncertain. Whether U.S. diplomatic intervention can prevent or halt a larger-scale invasion by the Turkish military junta is equally unclear.
A critical question now may be what the US can do to clam things. Despite its considerable influence, the extent of its power in this context remains notably constrained. Constrained does not mean however that it’s unable to do anything about Turkey’s cruelty towards the Kurdish nation. The situation in southern Kurdistan and Rojava under Turkish military occupation is unprecedented. Civilians are being killed, mountains burned, and much of the region’s fruit-bearing trees are being destroyed. The question of what the U.S. should do to address these atrocities is critical.
First, the Biden administration must not retreat from calls for Turkish withdrawal from Iraq and Syria. The U.S. should renew its military and diplomatic efforts to protect the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Just as the U.S. once acted to prevent genocide against the Kurds by the Iraqi regime, it must now counter Turkey’s aggressive campaign to destroy Kurdish villages and cities in southern Kurdistan and Rojava.
Second, the U.S. should urge the Turkish government to engage in diplomatic negotiations with the PKK, facilitating a dialogue aimed at resolving the conflict. Appointing a respected U.S. senator to chair the talks—similar to the Northern Ireland peace process between the IRA and the UK—could serve as a model. History shows that Turkey’s repression of the Kurds and its occupation of Kurdish lands will not yield long-term stability.
Third, given Iraq’s status as a failed state, the U.S. must exert pressure on the Iraqi government and its military to safeguard their borders and protect their territory in the face of Turkish incursions.
Fourth, the U.S. must remain committed to its broader, long-term goal of fostering political stability in the region. This is essential not only for security but also for curbing the potential mass exodus of refugees.
Finally, increasing U.S. military support to Rojava would not only bolster Kurdish defences but also enhance American influence over how those resources are utilized. The Biden administration and its allies must not abandon the foundations laid in the 1990s to protect the Kurds and Kurdistan. Doing so would risk undoing decades of progress.