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By Suare B:
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s political career is a clear example of this idea—a story of smart partnerships, betrayed partners, and a brilliant for blindsiding opponents with predatory precision.
Like a leopard in the wild, Erdoğan thrives on the element of surprise, turning friends into foes and foes into scapegoats, all while navigating Turkey’s foggy political landscape with ruthless adaptability. Let’s explore his journey, from a street-smart underdog to a prominent leader who reshapes allies and adversaries with equal ease.
The Rise: A Chameleon’s Ascent
Erdoğan’s story begins in 1954, born to a coastguard’s family in Istanbul’s gritty Kasımpaşa district. His rise from these humble roots to Istanbul’s mayor in 1994 under the Welfare Party was fueled by an everyman charm that resonated with conservative Muslims, urban underdogs, and those exhausted of Turkey’s secular elite. He wasn’t just a politician; he was a symbol of defiance against the Kemalist old guard.
By 2001, as co-founder of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Erdoğan reinvented himself. Gone was the fiery Islamist; in his place stood a “conservative democrat” promising EU-friendly reforms and economic prosperity. His coalition was a broad tent: devout Sunnis, Kurds eyeing peace, liberals craving modernization, and even the Gülen movement, a powerful Islamic network that bolstered his fight against the military’s stranglehold on politics. The results were undeniable—poverty plummeted from 42% to 13.8% by 2013, and a flourishing middle class hailed him as their champion. Yet, beneath this success, the seeds of betrayal were already sown.
The Pivot: From Allies to Enemies
Erdoğan’s loyalty to allies is short-lived, like a shadow in an Istanbul storm. By the late 2000s, his democratic mask began to crack. The 2013 Gezi Park protests, sparked by plans to raze a green space for a mall, exposed his intolerance for dissent. The same urban liberals who once backed his reforms were now labeled “thugs” and met with tear gas. The Gülenists, instrumental in curbing the military, faced an even harsher fate. After the 2016 coup attempt—blamed on Fethullah Gülen’s followers—Erdoğan launched a purge of staggering scale. Over 100,000 people, from academics to soldiers, were jailed or sacked, often on evidence as thin as a rumor. The irony? The Gülenists, once his battering ram, became his new “terrorist” obsession.
Even AKP backbones weren’t safe. Figures like former President Abdullah Gül and ex-Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, who helped build the party’s empire, were sidelined as Erdoğan tightened his grip, especially after the 2017 shift to a presidential system. Loyalty, it seems, is a one-way street in Erdoğan’s world.
The Adversaries: A Sledgehammer Approach
Erdoğan’s approach to political rivals combines razor-sharp calculation with raw displays of power. The judiciary became his weapon of choice, orchestrated to crush threats like Ekrem İmamoğlu, the charismatic Istanbul mayor who defeated the AKP in 2019. By 2025, İmamoğlu was jailed on fishy corruption charges, conveniently timed to derail his presidential candidacy. The Kurds, too, tasted betrayal. Early peace talks with the PKK won Erdoğan votes, but when political tides turned, he embraced nationalism, branding Kurds as terrorists and launching military campaigns. His 2023 election leaned heavily on anti-Kurdish rhetoric, torching bridges he’d once built.
The media, once a lively arena, became a graveyard of dissent. Independent outlets were shut down, journalists jailed, and loyalists installed to ensure Erdoğan’s narrative—heroic “reis” versus treacherous enemies—reigned supreme. By 2025, Turkey’s media was a chorus of pro-Erdoğan voices, with nary a whisper of opposition.
The Global Game: Friends, Foes, and Flip-Flops
Erdoğan’s foreign policy is a study in contradictions. His “zero problems with neighbors” slogan gave way to conflicts with Syria, Greece, Israel, and even NATO allies. He’s backed Syrian rebels, clashed with Kurds, and sparred with Greece over Mediterranean resources. Yet, when pragmatism calls, he pivots—brokering grain deals between Russia and Ukraine or warming ties with Saudi Arabia for economic relief. His ability to shift from firebrand to dealmaker keeps adversaries guessing, but it’s less about principle and more about survival.
The Grand Irony
Erdoğan’s career is a paradox wrapped in ambition. He rose as a liberator, vowing to dismantle Turkey’s elitist shackles, yet became the elite enforcer of his own system. His playbook—charm, betrayal, judicial strong-arming, and nationalist pivots—has kept him in power for over two decades. Allies like the Gülenists, liberals, and Kurds, once his stepping stones, now bear the scars of his betrayal, while rivals like İmamoğlu face his unrelenting machine. Loved by loyalists, loathed by critics, Erdoğan remains Turkey’s “reis,” proving that in politics, irony is the only constant.
Suare B is Kurdish writer.
