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By Mufid Abdulla:
PKK fighters in the Kandil
The big news is that jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan is about to issue an historic message to the Kurdish people, which will probably call for the disarmament of the PKK. Although there is still no transparent and detailed agenda for the peace process – such as the one outlined in Ocalan’s recent ‘Road Map’ book – nonetheless expectations have been raised about this ‘historic day’.
Sources close to the PKK leadership in the Kandil have informed KT that the PKK armed council remains very suspicious about the Turkish state’s agenda and the way in which it has started these negotiations. There is also, we are told, disquiet in the ranks about Ocalan’s continued personal commitment to the Kurdish cause
The PKK and many people in the north of Kurdistan are very suspicious as to whether this latest peace process is genuine and not another strategy to damage the PKK.
What we usually see in the early stages of peace processes elsewhere in the world – for example, in Northern Ireland and Palestine – is the opening of ‘back channels’, enabling secret talks between states and insurgent armed groups.
Hussain Agha and Robert Malley have written a paper describing the role of such a back channel in the recent Irish peace process:
”It draws on extensive newly available evidence on back-channel communication in the Irish peace process to expand the range of detailed case studies on a topic which is shrouded in secrecy and resistant to academic inquiry. The article analyses the operation of a secret back channel that linked the Irish Republican Army to the British government over a period of 20 years, drawing on unique material from the private papers of the intermediary, The article finds that interaction through this back channel increased predictability and laid a foundation of extremely limited trust by providing information and increasing mutual understanding. Strong cooperative relationships developed at the intersection between the two sides, based to a great extent on strong interpersonal relationships and continuity in personnel. This in turn produced direct pressure for changes in the position of parties as negotiators acted as advocates of movement in intraparty negotiations.”*
However, there is no back channel between the Turkish state and the PKK armed council, besides the involvement of Ocalan, who has been incarcerated and held mostly in isolation for more than a decade.
If these Imrali talks are really about building trust between the two sides, why has Turkey not yet responded to the PKK’s move last week in releasing eight Turkish soldiers? Why has Erdogan not reciprocated by releasing the thousands of unarmed Kurdish civilians who are detained in Turkish jails?
The Turkish state shows no sign of stopping their military offensives from the north to the south of Kurdistan. On the contrary, it has been estimated that the armed forces have increased operations against the PKK and PJAK by 60% in the recent period.
It is also vital to consider how these talks opened – against the background of the brutal murders in Europe of three PKK political activists, including a founding member of the PKK. It is clear that Turkish intelligence was involved in this, and with the knowledge of Western intelligence agencies. It seems beyond doubt that the Turk Omer Guney was the killer and that he had military training and backing to carry out cold-blooded executions of three female martyrs.
These murders represent a deadly pressure by the Turkish state on the PKK. The second phase of this pressure has come from the increased military operations against PKK forces in the Kandil Valley. Turkey has used military, political and media pressure on the PKK before opening these negotiations.
The PKK leadership can draw on the experience of the Kurds in the south, including the lesson that the most dangerous times are often during negotiations with the enemy. For example, in 1984 the Iraqi government started peace talks with the PUK for a few months, and the PUK declared a ceasefire. But the outcome proved to be more beneficial to the Iraqi dictator than to the Kurdish movement.
During this period, the Iraqi state managed to recruit a 370,000-strong Kurdish army (of collaborators who ordinary Kurds called the ‘Jash’ or small donkeys). Second, the regime managed to buy six members of the PUK leadership – their treachery was revealed in 1991, when the relevant intelligent documents were captured by the Kurdish movement. Finally, the PUK’s secret internal organisational structures in the the Suli and Erbil regions were compromised, with hundreds of activists arrested and executed for their involvement with the movement.
After these failed negotiations, the PUK told its followers that it had been “a small break after a long walk”. But they paid a heavy price for that small break.
The Turkish state and its intelligence apparatus, the MIT, know very well that the military option cannot defeat the PKK. The PKK has survived the worst of crises and still it has grown rapidly. Meanwhile the Turkish economy has been stymied by the long internal war which has engulfed the state of Turkey politically and economically.
The PKK leadership should rightly be vigilant about exactly what the Turkish state wants. Yes, we need Ocalan as a symbol of unity and of the aspiration of this nation for freedom, justice and equality. But some minimum demands – for the release of prisoners and the granting of language and cultural rights – must be achieved for real peace negotiations to progress. Otherwise Kurds could be looking at surrender and setback, not victory.
*Reference: Agha H., Malley R. The Last Negotiation: How to End the Middle East Peace Process ,Foreign Affairs, Vol. 81, No. 3 (May – Jun.,2002), pp. 10-18 Published by: Council on Foreign Relations
Copyright © 2013 Kurdistantribune.com
A very thought provoking article, of which some careful observations were made. I think the most important thing is definitely the fair exchange aspect for this disarmament. The PKK has had generations of loyalists who have fought with blood, sweat and tears for the struggle whilst dedicating their entire lives. The fidelity in the PKK and the passion towards the cause alongside the ‘death before dishonour’ mentality of its members leaves me in a nebulous of concern. I just hope the exchange is fair for the sake of every victim who freely lived and died for the Kurdish Rights movemment. It must also be noted that Turkey is the 17th strongest economy in the world and has also been declared a model and leading Islamic nation of which the world has been observing. So maybe they are committed to resolving and reconciling one of longest standing battles of history. At this stage, it is too early to make predictions, only time will tell.
It seems to be another example of a kurdish political leader who is ready to sacrifice all the pains of Kurdish nation in North Kurdistan for his own personal privileges.There is no ironclad Indication that the Turkish state is ready to accept national and cultural rights of Kurds in Turkey and to abandon its Kemalist ideology, yet Mr Ocalan is issuing very dangerous decrees from his prison cell to abandon the fight, although one should be very careful that an incarcerated person cannot really express his own will freely and it seems that he has been manipulated by Turkish intelligence officers. There should be clear commitments by Turkish state towards Kurdish rights befor laying down the arms, otherwise a big setup is in making!