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By Evin Cheikosman:
Ever since the Gezi protests last summer, PM Erdogan has been on the defensive. Wary of the stability of the country and the fragile state of his planned running for the presidential elections on 10th August, he has done everything he can to suppress any forms of opposition and shun anything that is not directly helpful to his campaign. It was just four days ago that riot police armed with plastic bullets, pepper spray, and water cannons clashed with protestors that were fighting to defy the ban on May Day celebrations. Why on earth would someone want to do that? Well, PM Erdogan certainly did and did so in efforts to prevent the celebrations from turning into an all out anti-government demonstration. Thus he discontinued public transportation services all over Istanbul and put Ankara on total lockdown.
But that’s not all. PM Erdogan has definitely upped the ante these past months, breezing through nonsensical internet censorship laws, banning access to YouTube, shutting down various other websites without a court order, collecting web browsing data from users, placing a veteran spy in charge of Turkey’s telecommunications regulator, advancing the powers of the national spy agency (MIT), and those of the government over the courts. Of course there is a reasonable enough explanation for all of this:
The PM is convinced that there are millions of evil little global backstabbers scheming evil little ways of overthrowing him and harming Turkey.
Some of these “evil little backstabbers” are the journalists whom Erdogan has been throwing into jails throughout Turkey. For example, an opposition newspaper columnist and academic was sentenced last week to 10 months in jail for a tweet that insulted the prime minister. A TWEET! It’s utterly ridiculous. Here is a country that is technically a democracy but there is no freedom of expression and, if someone were so much as to say his name in a not so pleasant tone, off to jail you go. It’s a game, you see, that Erdogan is trying desperately to win. The game is called “Whoever has more journalists in jail wins!” So far Turkey is the front runner, ahead of Iran and China (CPJ, 2013). A side note for PM Erdogan: don’t worry anymore, you win.
So what does this mean for his popularity? Is he still all that? Well, he indeed does have a large support system but it is nothing compared to what it was a year ago. According to surveys, Erdogan’s approval rating tumbled to 39.4 percent this month from 48.1 percent in December and 59.1 percent a year earlier. But why does that 39.4 percent approve of Erdogan. Well because of what he did for the country since he entered office in 2003. He has improved the economic state of Turkey and unclenched the traditionalist fist that leaders before him had. Today however there has been much to cause his approval ratings to drop, but he still has his eye on making the Turkish economy thrive.
Thus Turkey’s primary objective is to ensure its own energy security by slowly setting its presence in Iraqi Kurdistan’s oil and gas industry. This is proven by the strong ties that Turkey and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) have formed because of oil; and after weeks of waiting, the KRG has finally resumed oil exports of 100,000 bpd through the pipeline to Turkey, where the crude will go for sale in the next couple days. Nevertheless, despite Turkey’s “pleasant” ties to the KRG, it is only for oil and does not lose sight of the fact that Kurdistan is home to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which carried out a violent insurgency in Turkey’s southeastern region over the last 30 years. This retracts back to the stalled peace treaties that began a year ago between PKK leader Ocalan and Turkey.
There is a lot at stake for Erdogan in his bid for the presidency and he has many groups to win over. The young revolutionary generation (making up about 80% of the country that reject the ideologies of the old political elite) and the Kurds are his strongest oppositionist forces and will not check his box at the voting polls on 10th August, lest he stops the games and returns Turkey to its democratic place in the world and own up to the promises he made to Ocalan and Turkey’s Kurds. PM Erdogan can no longer force his vision for Turkey on the individual and society, nor can he ignore or assimilate those individuals that do not fit his vision. It is not up to Erdogan but the NEW, uncorrupt, and intellectual people of Turkey to live up to their own idea of a democracy. A democracy that stands atop the pillars of inclusion, freedom, and opportunity for all.
Evin Cheikosman is a Kurd living in Los Angeles, CA, A recent graduate in International Politics from the University of California, Santa Barbara, she has studied abroad in Berlin, Germany and will soon be traveling to Zhuhai, China on a teaching assignment. Thereafter she will be pursuing a masters degree in foreign affairs. During her free time, Evin posts facts and opinions concerning Kurdish politics on her blog: Minority Politico
Very good article on Turkish state.
His popularity cannot be solely explained by his accomplishments in upping the Turkish economy.
Let’s not forget that in the Middle East people often still vote for individuals with the same ethnic/religious background. Many of the Turks voting for Erdogan do so because he’s simply islamic. The Alevi Turks, in contrast (as well as the Alevi Kurds), vote largely leftist.
Additionally, his firm grasp on Turkish media also can’t be ignored. I can imagine that people in the more remote parts of Turkey don’t really know how much of a lunatic he is.
Yet, you wouldn’t believe the amount of Turkish youth(!) I know here in Belgium that strongly sympatize with Erdogan and his policies, even the educated ones. These hail most often from religious/conservative strongholds like Kayseri and Emirdag.
Also, to portray the Kurds as a united front is gravely mistaken. Erdogan’s (small) concessions to Kurds; the decades-long negative portrayal of the PKK and the religiosity/conservatism that is present among many Kurdish families have won him a strong support from these Kurds.
Thank you for the insightful analysis Miss. Cheikosman. Your articles are very informational, keep writing!