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By Aziz Sheikhani:
Before analysing the upcoming Iranian election, it is better to highlight some issues that have affected the whole situation in Iran. The history of the country, people, social structure, political system, economics and the undemocratic situation of the country, religion, and both internal and external factors – all are elements that cannot be ignored.
First of all, Iranian history, including of the Persian Empire, indicates that the rulers of the country, in different periods of past and present, have tried to keep the people underdeveloped. According to the history, one of the Iranian Qajar kings gave advice to his successor on the art of ruling the people. According to his advice, keeping the people in an undeveloped state and far from knowledge made them easier to rule.
A retarded system and the structure of the government in Persia and then Iran, has deprived the people of their self-awareness, individual and national rights. They had been taught that the Shah and then Imam was a representative of God on the earth. Shia (Twelver sect) as an official religion in Iran has a long history and it dates back to the 16th century, when the Safavid Dynasty was established in Persia.
The lack of public awareness and of a civil society, with other major factors, including a tyrannical government, forced the Iranian people to remain silent. For these reasons, apart from the Constitutional Revolution in Iran 1905-7, which failed, there was no crucial revolution or progress compared to many other states.
Regardless of internal reasons behind the failure of the people to have their own democratic state, the power game of the great powers also impacted on the direction of politics in Iran.
The Islamic State, under the leadership of Khomeini, is significant evidence of the policy of the great powers towards the future of Iran. From the perspective of the western states, particularly under the shadow of the Cold War, the Islamic Regime could fulfil their requirement better than any other system. It would be a strong barrier against the policy of the Soviet Union. For this reason, Khomeini while in France gained a wide media attention. As a result of the western policy, he became known as the saviour of the country. Thus, the national and left groups and their supporters in Iran were ignored. Under the wide western media support for a new system in Iran, people were not aware of the consequences of the revolution following the toppling of Shah. In other words, they did not have a plan and alternative for the replacement of the Shah and they only wanted to defeat the ruling system.
Elections in Iran were and still are quite dramatic. Under the structures of both king and religious clergyman, people have had no real choice. For instance, from the beginning of the revolution in 1979 the people were misled. On 1 April 1979, they were given a limited chance to choose their future political system between two options – an Islamic Republic or the previous system. In addition, following the approval of a new constitution, Iran got a supreme leader who was above everything. The whole political system of the country is based on the Constitution. The people were misled and they were forced into the most difficult situation in the name of God and Islam.
For more than three decades, the Iranian Islamic Republic has ruled the country and it is debatable that they have created the best system for retaining power in the world. Elections were held only to keep power in their hands, because there is no space to transfer power. On the other hand, elections have been held to gloss over their unique system.
The eleventh election of the President of Iran will take place on 14 June 2013. To encourage the Iranian people to participate, a local council election will be held on the same day. The aim of the Iranian rulers is increasing the number of voters in order to manipulate the legitimization of the Iranian Islamic System.
The previous presidential election, held on 12 June 2009, challenged the regime and its top leadership for the first time. It led to demonstrations in Iran, including in the capital and also outside the country and around the world. The result of the election, announced by the officials, divided the different wings of regime in practice and surprised the people. Even though all the presidential candidates were loyal to the regime and its founder, they were in a hard competition to gain the presidential position.
The people were ready to cross the red line and show their dissatisfaction with the Islamic Republic. However, as was mentioned in the beginning of this article, the people are not trained to defeat their oppressive rulers, including by democratic ways. The demonstration leaders, who were loyal to the regime and part of it, were not ready to break any of its taboos. Following the election, there appeared the Green Movement, which wanted to remove Mohammad Ahmadinejad from his given position. Ali Khamenei, as the supreme leader, supported the announced result of the presidential election and then denounced the demonstrations as illegal. The leaders of the demonstrations, who had been, for the last three decades, an important part of the system, ultimately backed the continuity of the regime and abandoned the people.
According to the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the supreme leader is most powerful and he appoints the heads of many posts, such as the judiciary, civil government, commanders of the armed forces, media, the Guardian Council etc. Therefore, the president in Iran cannot do so much and he is under the supervision of the leader. In addition, the election in Iran is puppetry, because the officials can take control of the result or the elected candidate. For instance, when Mohammad Khatami was elected by the people in 1997, the supreme leader of Iran through his power made him a man of speech not practice.
According to the Iranian political system, becoming a president of the country is limited and excludes dissidents and non-state religion believers (Shia Twelver is a state religion and it is mentioned in the Constitution). Regardless of that, there are tough controls to disqualify candidates by the unelected Council of Guardian.
On the basis of the above facts, relating to the Iranian system and its presidential election, it can be stated that it does not fulfil the requirements for a democratic state. Even though during every election there are differing views on the future of the country, the result remains the same. All the signs indicate that the elected president or speaker of the Parliament is not able to change the direction of the Iranian Islamic Republic. There is no difference allowed between leftists, hardliners, reformists, revolutionaries etc. under the power of the top leader of the country. The society is controlled in different ways and the people are not given the chance to decide on their own. Therefore, these elections have no crucial impact on the form and content of the regime.
Many interpretations for the future of Iran, from different perspectives, including the western researchers and politicians, are not close to reality. In addition, most of these perspectives are based only on texts that are not consistent with the power game in Iran on the ground. This election includes both presidential and local councils and, because of a wide competition, particularly in the local council elections, people participate in them. In the post-election period, this participation of the people will be interpreted by the regime as a historical victory for the Iranian Islamic Republic, even if it has been and will be an act of puppetry. Changes can come through the overthrow of the system and not just by the election of second and third class authorities, under the control of unelected institutes.
Aziz Sheikhani is a doctoral candidate from Finland (University of Tampere). His doctoral paper is on “Why the Kurds do not have their own state? Events that changed the destiny of the Kurds, 1916-26”.
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