New Iraq or dark days?

By Dr. Abdul Wahed Jalal Nore:

In November 2008, representatives of US President George W. Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki signed a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), which established the operational and legal framework for US soldiers and their civilian counterparts in Iraq. The key line in the agreement was contained in Article 24: “All the United States Forces shall withdraw from all Iraqi territory no later than December 31, 2011”. And now the war in Iraq is officially over. Whether it is actually over remains to be seen. All that we know is that US forces have been withdrawn. There is much to be said about the future of Iraq, but it is hard to think of anything that has been left unsaid about the past years of war in Iraq, and true perspective requires the passage of time.

In the 2010 election a political stalemate was broken through a US-backed deal in which Maliki remained as prime minister. However, once Maliki was sworn in, instead of ameliorating the fragile Iraqi politics and strengthening a culture of democracy and federalism in his first term, he become an elusive and evasive prime minister and evaded the responsibility of having an open approach to all political factions and creating an inclusive national government abiding by the rule of law.  In fact, Maliki’s political flank is guarded by the Shiite cleric Muqtada Sadre. The prime minister knows that his partnership with Sadr has the blessing of his powerful neighbor Iran.

For several reasons, many people are  pessimistic about the sucess  of the United States in democratizing Iraq. In the first place, they note that “at the most fundamental level, democracy requires the existence of an implicit consensus on the legitimacy of the underlying order”. It is questionable whether all groups  have ever fully accepted the legitimacy of an Iraqi state.  Second, any form of democracy requires trust, which has been pitifully absent. Iraq was “an artificial British creation,” which has only been held together by the glue of authoritarianism. The minimum requirement for democracy to be succeed is a political order characterized by pluralism, cultural tolerance, and a high degree of regional autonomy – precisely the sort of government that Iraq has never enjoyed.

The current news of the arrest warrant  for Iraq’s Sunni Vice-President, Tariq al-Hashemi, on terror charges is not good for the United States. The central question now is this: Will the country’s current democratic system hold up over the long term, or will the deep suspicions borne of Saddam Hussein’s brutal rule and the recent sectarian conflict lead the country back to a new authoritarian leader or a civil war? Maliki’s behavior surpasses and goes against any and every democratic principle and human right. His political compass is to return Iraq to its dark days. Thus there is no such thing as a ‘New Iraq’. Maliki is against every concept of federalism and has many times revealed his desire to change the provisions of the Iraqi Constitution that recognize historic Kurdish rights. It would therefore be wise for the Kurdish leaders  to reassess their options with the Iraqi government. The people of Kurdistan should no longer bet on Maliki’s pretense.

Dr. Abdul Wahed Jalal Nore is a visiting lecturer at the University Malaya (Academy of Islamic Studies)

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