Israel’s concerns are very real, but …

By Ramyar Hassani:

On Wednesday (November 20th) Iran and the 5+1 Group are holding nuclear talks again. Iran comes intending to win the negotiations and gradually secure the cancellation of all sanctions. Europe and the US want to make sure Iran does not produce any nuclear weapon and to prevent high-level uranium enrichment which can lead to the production of weapon-grade uranium. But they are in less of a rush than Israel. The regime in Tehran counts Israel as its No.1 enemy: this is a red line even for the moderate new president Rouhani who was recently open to having a direct phone call with the US president – the first such conversation since the Islamic regime came to power in 1979.

For more than three decades the Iranian regime has emphasized its wish for the elimination of Israel. The threats grew with Iran’s nuclear program, with former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad threatening many times remove Israel from the map – even on his 2010 visit to the Lebanon, just a few kilometers from the Israeli border. The depth of the hatred of the Iranian regime for Israel is clear if we look at the matter of international sporting contests: Iranian athletes are always prohibited from contesting with Israeli ones, regardless of their own wishes.

Israel and Saudi Arabia are the nearest of what Ayatollah Khamenei’s regime deems to be enemy states, will Israel always more of an enemy than Saudi Arabia. The recent geopolitical situation of the Middle-East has effectively turned Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia into neighbors with mutual borders. Iraq plays a key role in this geopolitical situation. Since 2003 the Iraqi central government, excepting the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), has been ruled by a predominantly Shiite government, many of whose leaders were in exile in Iran during the era of Saddam Hussein. The influence that Iran now has in Iraq and the border between Iraq and Saudi Arabia, arguably means that there is a mutual border between Iran and Saudi Arabia, though it is mostly desert.

Iraq, Syria and Lebanon are the three countries between Iran and Israel. Iraq with its Shiite government and strong Iranian influence; Bashar Assad’s government in Syria; and the strength of Hezbollah in Lebanon all serve to create a kind of mutual border between Iran and Israel. On the other hand, Israel and Saudi Arabia are the closest friends of the US and Europe in the Middle-East and so, even though the US is far away from Iran, its allies are pretty close.

Producing nuclear weapons does not mean Iran will achieve the same nuclear capability as the US. Instead their weapons will be much smaller and more basic, such as fission or fusion types. However, they would be more than enough for Iran to threaten Israel and Saudi Arabia. If Iran eventually produces any nuclear weapons this will cause a huge crisis in the Middle-East, much greater than anything happening currently.

Some countries, especially Israel, are calling for continuing the sanctions on Iran in order to control the nuclear program and urging the negotiators to seek better deal with Iran. But let’s say the sanctions continue and even new ones are stipulated by US and EU. Is that an adequate and practical way to stop Iran? What they will do about the $95 billion wealth of Khamenei’s Setad organisation? Isn’t this huge amount of money going to be another problem in the process?

It is very clear that the Tehran regime does not care about its people, their welfare and human rights. The sanctions affect more and more the lives of the ordinary people. Of course, they are also pushing the regime to take a seat at the negotiation table but the pressure on them is not as much as it is on ordinary people. So why not, first, find a solution to end the Syrian conflict, get rid of Bashar’s regime and cut the hand of Iran in Syria? Then lobby Russia to stop supporting Iran and try to reduce China’s support for the regime?  And why not track and block the regime leaders’ financial sources and deals outside Iran, rather than increasingly hurt ordinary people through a lack of medicine and other essential products caused by some of the sanctions?

Israel’s concerns about not letting Iran win the deal in these negotiations are very real, but it is important to be mindful of all factors. Iran is ever more dangerous in the Middle-East and it is clear that the regime wants to deceive the international community again, kill time through long-term negotiations and hide its clandestine evil actions in the region. If it succeeds, even sanctions will not prevent Ayatollah Khamenei and his friends from achieving whatever they want – mainly nuclear weapon – and the only ones affected by the sanctions will be ordinary people.

Ramyar.hassani@gmail.com

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