By Zeravan Barwary:
Many analysts are trying to make a comprehensive analysis of the crisis in Egypt. People around the world are observing the events carefully. In the Middle East and North Africa, people are looking forward to imitating the Egyptian revolution to get their freedom from the totalitarian regimes that have no legitimacy and have maintained their power through unrealistic regulation, using fear and terror.
Today, there are great developments in the region. There is about to be a political earthquake and it seems that we are facing a new era: an era that might change the political map in the region, an era that will produce new political facts and role players. It is beyond question that the domestic reforms in the region, especially in the Arab world, will affect international relations. There will be a new era in the relations between the Arab world and Western societies and in the Arab-Israeli negotiations to achieve peace and stability. Israel is worried about what is happening in Egypt. It considers the recent events as a real threat to Israel’s national security and its alliance in the region. The coming political regimes might be tougher with Israel than the current ones. Here a number of questions arise. Will the Islamic political parties run the Arab world? And, if they do, how would this affect Western interests in the region? And how would this affect people’s freedoms in the Arab world?
It is true that the Islamic parties are the most powerful opposition in many Arab countries, especially in Egypt. However, this does not mean that these Islamic parties will run the Arab world alone. There will be a new policy. The Islamic parties will consider the lessons of the pervious era and, therefore, they will share the political map with the other parties and secular elites in an attempt to show a modern attitude that would serve the desires of all the people, from different sectors and classes in Egyptian society. They will support democracy because the tools of democracy will help them to reach power in the region. In addition, they need to protect their existence through outside support – or at least through avoiding Western hostility. I believe that the Islamic groups are aware of the new era, and they will benefit from the Turkish experience. The Muslim Brotherhood group in Egypt is working in that direction. It depends on secular people to change the political situation. It will appear in the picture in the coming stage. It will use its influence in Egyptian society through elections and democratic transition of power. For now, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is observing the situation carefully to participate in the post-Mubarak era strongly and effectively.
The Muslim Brotherhood group knows that politicians in the West have had a strong influence on their societies for several decades. They will deal with this fact rationally and responsibly. They will try to practice a pragmatic policy with Western societies in order to protect their interests and to stay in power.
In term of freedom, the Islamic groups suffered from the lack of freedom and totalitarian regimes for many decades. Thus they will not repeat the same mistake again. I believe that people’s freedoms will not be affected when the Islamic groups run the politics of the Arab world.
In brief, the upcoming events will answer many unanswered questions. People will have more power than before and there will be a real participation in the process of decision-making.
Zeravan Barwary has a Masters degree in Political Science. He has worked with international organizations such as UN, EU and NDI in many countries such as Turkey, Morocco, Jordan, Malaysia and Indonesia. Currently he is a volunteer with NGOs and a lecturer at the University of Dohuk.